INSIDE THE LINES
FRIDAY, MAY 1
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Atlanta (3-2 SU and ATS) at (5) Miami (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Hawks will look to put away the Southeast Division rival Heat when they travel to American Airlines Arena for Game 6 of this best-of-7, first-round series.
In Game 5 Wednesday night, Atlanta rolled to a 106-91 victory as a six-point home chalk, winning and cashing for the second straight game. Joe Johnson led the Hawks with 25 points, six assists and six rebounds, and Ronald Murray added 23 points off the bench as Atlanta put five players in double figures and outrebounded Miami 37-29. Wednesday’s outcome continued a series-long trend that has seen all five games decided by double digits.
Dwyane Wade led Miami with 29 points in a physical Game 5, and rookie Michael Beasley scored 18. The Heat were only negligibly outshot (48.6 percent to 47.7 percent) and committed seven turnovers to Atlanta’s five, but they sent the Hawks to the free-throw line 41 times, and Atlanta converted 33 from the stripe. Miami, meanwhile, went 25 of 32 from the foul line.
The Hawks hold a 6-3 SU edge (5-4 ATS) against Miami for the season. However, going back further, Miami is still 23-11 ATS in its last 34 battles with Atlanta, including 13-4 ATS in the last 17 in South Beach.
Miami is 29-14 SU (21-21-1 ATS) at home this season, while Atlanta is just 17-26 SU (22-21 ATS) on the highway, though the Hawks won Game 4 on Monday 81-71 as a five-point road pup.
The Hawks are on ATS upticks of 12-4-1 after a spread-cover, 10-4-1 playing on one day of rest and 15-5 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, but they still carry negative ATS streaks of 1-4 after a SU win, 1-5 as a an underdog, 1-4 as a road ‘dog and 3-6 against winning teams.
The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last eight first-round playoff games, and they are on further pointspread declines of 1-5 as a playoff chalk, 11-23 laying five to 10½ points and 17-35-1 as a home favorite. However, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home starts and 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss.
For Atlanta, the under is on tears of 5-2 overall, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 with the Hawks favored on the road and 12-4 with the Hawks catching five to 10½ points on the highway. Likewise, the under for Miami is on rolls of 8-2 against winning teams, 6-2 with the Heat favored and 5-1 with the Heat as a home chalk. However, the over for Miami is on runs of 14-6-1 at home, 22-6-1 after a SU loss and 20-6-1 after a non-cover.
Finally, these rivals have stayed low in seven of nine meetings this year – though Wednesday’s contest soared over the 180-point posted price – and the under is also 4-0 in the last four battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (11-11) at L.A. Dodgers (15-8)
The top two teams in the N.L. West continue their four-game weekend series at Dodger Stadium, where Padres ace Jake Peavy (2-3, 5.74 ERA) is slated to toe the slab against Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 7.29) as
The Dodgers opened an 11-game homestand by rallying for an 8-5 victory Thursday to close out April with a 7-0 home record, the first time that’s happened since 1947 when the franchise was in Brooklyn. Los Angeles has won its seven home games by the combined tally of 72-22. Also, Joe Torre’s club is on positive runs of 13-5 overall, 37-16 at home, 26-10 as a favorite and 12-3 against N.L. West rivals.
San Diego has now dropped eight of its last 10 after beginning the season 9-3, and during the slump, the Padres have lost six of seven on the road. Additionally, the Friars are in funks of 20-49 as a road underdog, 28-59 versus winning teams and 1-5 against the N.L. West. On the bright side, San Diego has won seven of its last 10 against lefty starters and four of its past five on Friday.
These teams split a four-game series in San Diego to open the season, but Los Angeles is still 10-4 in the last 14 clashes, including taking six of the last seven at Dodger Stadium.
Peavy started the season with consecutive quality starts at home against the Dodgers and Giants but in his last three trips to the mound, he’s given up a total of 14 runs (all earned) in just 16 innings (7.88 ERA), including consecutive 8-3 losses in his last two starts to the Giants (road) and Pirates (home). The hard-throwing right-hander is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two road outings, and San Diego is 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog (all on the road).
The Padres had won nine straight games against the Dodgers with Peavy on the mound prior to a 4-1 Opening Day home loss in which their ace yielded all four runs (three earned) in seven innings. Despite that setback, San Diego is still 16-5 in Peavy’s last 21 starts against the Dodgers, with Peavy going 13-2 with a 2.39 ERA in 23 career appearances against L.A. (6-1, 3.46 ERA in 11 starts at Dodger Stadium).
Like Peavy, Kershaw has gotten hammered in his last two starts, giving up a combined 15 runs (all earned) in just nine total innings, losing 8-5 at Houston and 10-4 in Colorado. However, in his lone home start this year, Kershaw allowed just one hit (a solo home run) and struck out 13 in seven innings, getting a no-decision in the Dodgers’ 5-4 victory. L.A. is unbeaten in the southpaw’s last six starts at home.
Kershaw yielded just a run on two hits in five innings in San Diego in his 2009 debut, but the Padres rallied for a 4-3 victory. Kershaw has made four starts against San Diego, going 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA. Los Angeles is 3-1 when the 21-year-old faces the Padres (2-0 at home).
The over is 5-1 in Peavy’s last six starts overall, 14-5-1 in his last 20 on the highway and 8-3 in his last 11 against the Dodgers, while Los Angeles has hurdled the total in four of Kershaw’s last five starts overall and four of his last five at home.
All four meetings in San Diego this month stayed under the total, but Thursday’s game cleared the posted price, making the “over” 21-8 in the last 29 Padres-Dodgers clashes in Los Angeles. Additionally, the Dodgers are on “over” stretches of 8-1-3 overall, 5-1-1 at home this season, 9-1-1 as a home favorite, 11-1-1 against right-handed starters and 6-0-3 versus the N.L. West. Similarly, San Diego carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 6-2 in N.L. West contests and 5-1 on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (14-8) at Tampa Bay (9-14)
The Red Sox will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to the Rays in Thursday’s series opener when they send young Justin Masterson (2-0, 2.70) to the mound against Andy Sonnanstine (0-3, 7.78) as this four-game set continues at Tropicana Field.
Matt Garza took a perfect game into the sixth inning and Evan Longoria homered and drove in four runs as Tampa Bay blasted the Red Sox 13-0 last night. The Rays, who had dropped four of five coming into Thursday’s contest, are on positive stretches of 61-25 at home (only 3-5 this year), 9-3 as a home ‘dog and 20-7 on Friday.
Despite last night’s debacle, Boston is still 12-2 in its last 14 games, and during this run of success the team is 11-1 as a favorite, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 8-2 versus right-handed starters. Additionally, the Red Sox are on streaks of 9-2 on Friday, 7-3 with Masterson starting and 6-0 when Masterson is favored. However, Terry Francona’s squad has now lost 23 of its last 32 games on artificial turf.
These rivals opened the season with a three-game series at Fenway Park, with the Red Sox winning the first contest but Tampa Bay has come back to win the last three in a row. After struggling for years against Boston, the Rays have had the upper-hand in this rivalry of late, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings overall and 12 of the 15 in Tampa Bay.
Masterson, a middle reliever who is taking the rotation spot of the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka, has been outstanding in his first two starts. Facing the Orioles and Yankees – both at home – the right-hander gave up just one run in 5 1/3 innings in each start, walking a total of three and striking out seven. However, Masterson has developed a significant home-road split in his young career, going 7-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 24 games (seven starts) at Fenway Park, but just 1-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 18 games (four starts) as a visitor.
Masterson is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in six appearances (two starts) against the Rays. The two starts came last year, and he allowed four runs over six innings in each contest.
Sonnanstine is coming off a 7-1 loss at Oakland in which he yielded all seven runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work. The Rays are winless in Sonnanstine’s last five starts going back to last year’s World Series, but they have won 11 of his last 15 at home and seven of his last 10 against A.L. East rivals. In his only home outing so far in 2009, the right-hander held the Yankees to two runs on four hits in five innings, getting a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 4-3 loss.
Sonnanstine was masterful in three starts against the Red Sox last year (one in the playoffs), giving up six runs (three earned) in 20 1/3 innings (1.33 ERA), walking three and striking out 14. It was in sharp contrast to 2007, when Sonnanstine went 1-1 with an 8.85 ERA in four starts against Boston, three of which the Rays lost.
The under is 4-2 in the last five Red Sox-Rays battles. Otherwise, though, the over for Boston is on streaks of 14-4 overall, 8-1 on the road, 12-3 as a favorite and 2-0 in Masterson’s two starts against the Rays. Similarly, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 6-2 at home, 7-3 on Friday, 36-16 against right-handed starters, 5-2 with Sonnanstine facing Boston and 19-9 when Sonnanstine takes the hill as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
